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What does a wagering requirement really cost?

On a €100 bonus, 40x means €4,000 of bets before you can withdraw; €8,000 if it applies to deposit plus bonus. At a 96% RTP slot (4% house edge) the expected loss is €160 or €320, more than the bonus. Games that count 10% need ten times the bets.

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The terms

Type them from the casino's own terms page. Amounts in any one currency.

The bonus
The amount you deposit.
100 for a 100% match.
The most the bonus can be. Blank: no cap.
40 for 40x.
The game
From the game's own info screen at this casino.
The share of each bet the terms count for this game.

The same slot can run at a different RTP setting in another casino: read the RTP in the game's info screen where you play, not on a review site.

Limits (optional)
The largest bet allowed while wagering. Blank: none.
Days allowed to finish the wagering. Blank: none.
The most you can cash out from the bonus. Blank: none.

The cost

Still needed: Deposit (D), Match % (m), Wagering multiplier (W), Game RTP %, Game weighting % (c).

Expected loss is an average — variance is not modelled, nor the chance of losing the balance before the wagering is done.

How it is worked out

  • Bonus: B = min(D × m, K), the deposit times the match, up to the cap. For free spins, B = F, their winnings.
  • Wagering base: Wb is B, D + B, or F, as the terms say.
  • Counted turnover: R = W × Wb.
  • Real stakes: S = R ÷ c, where c is the share of each bet the game counts.
  • Expected loss: L = S × h, where h = 1 − RTP is the house edge.
  • Expected value of taking the bonus: EV ≈ B − L, at most the max cash-out X. For a sticky bonus, EV ≈ −L.
  • Break-even multiplier: W* = c × B ÷ (h × Wb). Above it, taking the bonus is worse on average than declining it.
  • Fewest bets: N = S ÷ M at the max bet M, and N ÷ T a day over T days.

Worked examples

  • €100 deposit, 100% match, a €100 bonus, 40x on the bonus, a slot at 96% RTP counting 100%: R = €4,000, L = €160, EV = −€60. Break-even: 25x.
  • The same on deposit + bonus: R = €8,000, L = €320, EV = −€220. Break-even: 12.5x.
  • Blackjack counting 10% at a 0.5% edge: S = €40,000, L = €200.
  • With a €5 max bet: at least 800 bets, about 115 a day over 7 days.

What it does not tell you

  • Expected loss is an average over many players — variance is not modelled. One player can lose the whole balance long before the wagering is done, or finish ahead.
  • The same slot can run at a different RTP setting in another casino. Read the RTP in the game's own info screen where you play.
  • The only built-in edges are the two the game's rules fix: European roulette (one zero), 1/37 = 2.70%; American roulette (two zeros), 2/38 = 5.26%.
  • Terms change. The casino's own terms on the day you accept a bonus are the ones that apply.